关键词: 开采沉陷, 厚松散层, 动态移动变形, 下沉速度, 多元线性回归分析

Abstract: To evaluate the mining-induced surface movement and deformation in the coal field covered with thick alluvium, the parameters used to characterize the surface displacement are determined with the process of mining, and a formulation for calculating the subsidence velocity is developed based on the measured data from the surface observation stations. The results show that when the working face is pushed to the maximum settlement point of 170 m, the point of the sinking speed reaches the maximum value of 22.85 mm/d. The longer distance the panel advances, the higher value the surface maximum subsidence velocity reaches, so with its lagging distance. However, after the distance of the panel advancing is over about 600 m, the increase of these values is gradually much smaller, and then these values reach stable state of 22.00 mm/d and 165 m. In the following mining process, the surface subsidence velocity curve constantly moves forward with a fixed shape and lagging distance to panel. With domestic mining cases in the area covered with thick alluvium, relativity between dynamic subsidence parameters and the geological and mining technical parameters is analyzed with multiple regression method. At last, based on dynamic subsidence parameters variation, subsidence velocity prediction formula is obtained, which can predict subsidence velocity of any position at any time along the strike major cross direction. Comparing the expected value with measured value, it is proved that the expected results can meet the needs of the engineering practice.

Key words: mining subsidence, thick alluvium, dynamic movement and deformation, subsidence velocity, multiple linear regression analysis