降雨诱发滑坡阶跃型变形的预测分析及应用

doi:10.16285/j.rsm.2018.1197

岩土力学 ›› 2019, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (9): 3585-3592.doi: 10.16285/j.rsm.2018.1197

降雨诱发滑坡阶跃型变形的预测分析及应用

黄晓虎^{1, 2, 3}，雷德鑫^{1, 2, 3}，夏俊宝⁴，易武^{1, 2, 3}，张鹏^{1, 2, 3}

1. 三峡大学湖北省防灾减灾重点实验室，湖北宜昌 443002；2. 三峡地区地质灾害与生态环境湖北省创新协同中心，湖北宜昌 443002； 3. 三峡大学湖北长江三峡滑坡国家野外科学观测研究站，湖北宜昌 443002；4. 兴山县国土资源局，湖北宜昌 443711

收稿日期:2018-07-05 出版日期:2019-09-10 发布日期:2019-09-06
作者简介:黄晓虎，男，1987年生，博士，讲师，主要从事地质灾害预测与防治方面的教学与研究工作。E
基金资助:
国家青年科学基金项目（No.41502291）；三峡大学防灾减灾湖北省重点实验室开放基金（No.2018KJZ05，No.2017KJZ05）

Forecast analysis and application of stepwise deformation of landslide induced by rainfall

HUANG Xiao-hu^{1, 2, 3}, LEI De-xin^{1, 2, 3}, XIA Jun-bao⁴, YI Wu^{1, 2, 3}, ZHANG Peng^{1, 2, 3}

1. Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hubei Province, China Three Gorges University, Yichang, Hubei 443002, China; 2. Collaborative Innovation Center for Geohazard and Ecoenvironment in Three Gorges Area, Yichang, Hubei 443002, China; 3. National Field Observation and Research Station of Landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Yangtze River, China Three Gorges University, Yichang, Hubei 443002, China; 4. Xingshan Bureau of Land and Resources, Yichang, Hubei 443711, China

Received:2018-07-05 Online:2019-09-10 Published:2019-09-06
Supported by:
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation for Youths (41502291), the Open Fund of Hubei Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation ,China Three Gorges University (2018KJZ05, 2017KJZ05).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 滑坡进入蠕动变形阶段之后，往往难以及时开展勘察治理工作，合理的临灾预警是有效减少滑坡灾害损失的重要手段。首先确定降雨诱发“阶跃型”滑坡的预警关键判据为前期降雨、当次降雨、位移速率，并引入“一个降雨过程”定义滑坡监测的降雨区间，将预警过程分为当次降雨和前期降雨+当次降雨两种模式。然后运用最小二乘法确定滑坡“阶跃”变形曲线上的“破坏拐点”和“稳定拐点”用以确定变形加速区间，以此求解前期降雨、当次降雨以及移速率阈值。最后以王家坡滑坡为例，设计了两种模式下的5级递进式分级预警模型。研究表明：（1）前期降雨与当次降雨组成“一个降雨过程”的时间间隔为7 d；（2）王家坡滑坡的位移速率阈值为20 mm/d；（3）前期降雨+当次降雨模式下王家坡滑坡的前期降雨、当次降雨阈值分别为10、15 mm，当次降雨模式下王家坡滑坡的降雨阈值为25 mm。

关键词: “阶跃型”滑坡, 一个降雨过程, 阈值, 临灾预警系统

Abstract: After the landslide enters the creep deformation stage, it is usually difficult to carry out the investigation and management of the landslide in a timely manner. A reasonable early warning system becomes an important means for effectively reducing landslide hazards. This paper first determined that the key early warning criteria for stepwise landslide induced by rainfall: previous rainfall, current rainfall, and displacement rate. Moreover, one rainfall process is introduced to define the rainfall interval for landslide monitoring, and the warning process is divided into two modes of the previous-current rainfall and the current rainfall. Then the least squares method is used to define the failure inflection point and the stability inflection point on the displacement deformation curve of the stepwise landslide. Thus, the deformation acceleration interval of the landslide is determined to solve the previous rainfall, the current rainfall and the displacement rate threshold. Finally, taking the Wangjiapo landslide as an example, this paper designs the five-level progressive early warning system under two modes. The results show that: (1) the time interval of a rainfall process constituted by the previous rainfall and the current rainfall is 7 days; (2) the displacement rate threshold of Wangjiapo landslide is 20 mm/d; (3) in the mode of the previous-current rainfall, the previous rainfall threshold and the current rainfall threshold of the Wangjiapo landslide are 10 mm and 15 mm, respectively, and the rainfall threshold of the Wangjiapo landslide under the current rainfall mode is 25 mm.

Key words: ‘stepwise’ landslide, one rainfall process, threshold value, early warning system

中图分类号:

TU 433

黄晓虎, 雷德鑫, 夏俊宝, 易武, 张鹏, . 降雨诱发滑坡阶跃型变形的预测分析及应用[J]. 岩土力学, 2019, 40(9): 3585-3592.

HUANG Xiao-hu, LEI De-xin, XIA Jun-bao, YI Wu, ZHANG Peng, . Forecast analysis and application of stepwise deformation of landslide induced by rainfall[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2019, 40(9): 3585-3592.

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降雨诱发滑坡阶跃型变形的预测分析及应用

Forecast analysis and application of stepwise deformation of landslide induced by rainfall

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