盐岩地下储备库引发地表沉陷事故的风险分析

›› 2011, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (S2): 544-550.

盐岩地下储备库引发地表沉陷事故的风险分析

井文君¹，杨春和^{1, 2}，孔君凤¹，纪文栋¹

1. 中国科学院武汉岩土力学研究所岩土力学与工程国家重点实验室，武汉 430071；2. 重庆大学西南资源开发及环境灾害控制工程教育部重点实验室，重庆 400044

收稿日期:2011-03-31 出版日期:2011-08-10 发布日期:2011-08-26
作者简介:井文君，女，1986年生，博士研究生，主要从事岩土工程的风险分析研究
基金资助:
国家重点基础研究发展规划（973）（No. 2009CB724602，No. 2009CB724603）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（No. 50774076，No. 50725414）。

Risk analysis of ground subsidence accidents caused by underground storage caverns in salt rock

JING Wen-jun¹, YANG Chun-he^{1, 2}, KONG Jun-feng¹, JI Wen-dong¹

1.State Key Laboratory of Geomechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430071, China; 2. Key Laboratory for Exploitation of Southwestern Resources and Environmental Disaster Control Engineering, Ministry of Education, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China

Received:2011-03-31 Online:2011-08-10 Published:2011-08-26

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在盐岩储备库的建设和运营过程中，由于腔体不断收缩而导致上覆岩层发生变形，从而引起储库上部地表发生碟状沉降变形，甚至造成地表塌陷事故是盐岩地下储备库的重要事故类型之一。针对盐岩地下储备库引发的地表沉陷事故进行分析，找出了该类事故的发生机制并建立相应的故障树模型，计算得到地表沉陷事故的14种发生模式和10个基本致因事件，并提出了相应的控制措施。并从风险分析的角度对盐岩储备库引发的地表沉降事故的后果严重性进行预测分析研究，并以湖北云应盐矿为例，假设该地区在储气库的建设或运营过程中发生地表沉降事故，采用模糊综合评价法对该类事故后果的严重性进行风险预测，得出后果为可忽略、需考虑、严重、非常严重、灾难性的概率分别为0.24、0.28、0.29、0.15、0.04。为有效预防盐岩储备库运营引发地表沉陷事故以及在事故发生前进行损失严重性预测提供了依据和方法

关键词: 地表沉陷, 故障树模型, 模糊综合评价, 风险评价, 盐岩储备库

Abstract: In the construction and operation processes of underground storage cavern in bedded salt, ground subsidence, even earth surface collapse accidents, resulted by the storage cavern contraction and overlying rock deformation is an important accident type. Aimed at the ground subsidence accidents caused by underground storage cavern, this paper reveals the mechanism and builds the fault tree model of this type of accidents, finds out 14 failure patterns as well as 10 basic influence factors, also, puts forward the related control measures. Then Yunmeng-Yingcheng salt mine is taken as an example to forecast the severity of accident consequence. On the premise that ground subsidence accident happened at Yunmeng-Yingcheng salt mine, the severity probability of the accident consequence is analyzed using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Research results show that the severity of accident consequence belong to negligible level, to be considered level, serious level, very serious level and calamitous level are 0.24, 0.28, 0.29, 0.15, 0.04 respectively. The results are useful to prevent ground subsidence accidents caused by the storage caverns. What’s more, it also provides according theory and a feasible way for appraising the loss severity before the accident happening

Key words: ground subsidence, fault tree model, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, risk analysis, storage cavern in bedded salt

中图分类号:

TU 354

井文君，杨春和，孔君凤，纪文栋　. 盐岩地下储备库引发地表沉陷事故的风险分析[J]. , 2011, 32(S2): 544-550.

JING Wen-jun, YANG Chun-he, KONG Jun-feng, JI Wen-dong. Risk analysis of ground subsidence accidents caused by underground storage caverns in salt rock[J]. , 2011, 32(S2): 544-550.

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