盐岩储气库运营期时变可靠度计算及风险分析

›› 2011, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (5): 1479-1484.

盐岩储气库运营期时变可靠度计算及风险分析

贾超¹，刘家涛¹，张强勇¹，沈鑫¹，李术才¹，刘健¹，杨春和²

1.山东大学土建与水利学院，济南 250061；2.中国科学院武汉岩土力学研究所岩土力学与工程国家重点试验室，武汉 430071

收稿日期:2010-08-02 出版日期:2011-05-10 发布日期:2011-09-23
作者简介:贾超，男，1976年生，博士后，副教授，主要从事工程可靠度风险分析方面的研究工作
基金资助:
国家重点基础研究发展规划（973）(No. 2009CB724607)；山东大学自主创新基金资助项目（No. 2009TS092）

Time-variant reliability calculation and risk analysis for salt rock gas storage during operation time

JIA Chao¹, LIU Jia-tao¹, ZHANG Qiang-yong¹, SHEN Xin¹, LI Shu-cai¹, LIU Jian¹, YANG Chun-he²

1. School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Shandong University, Ji?nan 250061, China; 2. State Key Laboratory of Geomechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430071, China

Received:2010-08-02 Online:2011-05-10 Published:2011-09-23

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 盐岩是一种典型的流变性材料，其蠕变特性对建于其中的储库稳定性具有重要影响，储库可靠性具有明显时变特性。虽然在盐岩的蠕变力学特性及其变形特性方面，前人已做了大量的研究工作，但国内外在基于随机力学理论的盐岩储备库时变可靠度风险分析方面的研究尚不多见。以国内某盐岩地下储气库为例，建立了相应的可靠度计算功能函数，开展储气库运营期时变可靠度计算及储库风险分析研究。以储库的蠕变体积收缩率为风险控制指标，采用响应面法结合Monte-Carlo抽样，对储气库进行设计运营期内不同内压条件下蠕变随机力学计算，得出了储库可靠指标随时间的变化规律及风险发生水平，拟合出满足工程可靠度要求的体积收敛率限值与储气内压的关系式，并探讨了储气库可靠性对主要随机因素的敏感性，结论可为盐岩地下储气库的安全运行和后期维护提供理论依据

关键词: 盐岩储气库, 蠕变, 随机力学, 时变可靠度, 风险, 体积收敛率限值, 数值模拟

Abstract: As salt rock is a typical rheological material, creep property has a significant influence on stability of the underground storage, and the reliability has strong time-variant property. Although much work had been done on the mechanical property and deformation characteristic of salt rock, utilizing stochastic mechanical theory in time-variant reliability risk analysis of salt rock storage was scarcely published all over the world. The reliability function is established to calculate the time-variant reliability and analyze the risk of an underground salt rock gas storage in China. Taking volumetric shrinkage as a risk controlling criterion, and adopting response surface and Monte Carlo methods, creep stochastic mechanical calculations under different intrinsic pressures have been done on the storage during service period; laws of reliability index with time and risk level are obtained; and the equation between volumetric shrinkage limitation within reliability requirements and intrinsic pressure of the storage is fitted. Major random parameters sensitivity to reliability index are further discussed. Some useful conclusions are finally obtained, which could provide scientific basis for the storage safety operation and maintenance

Key words: salt rock storage, creep, stochastic mechanics, time-variant reliability, risk, volumetric shrinkage limitation, numerical simulation

中图分类号:

TE 122.2

贾超，刘家涛，张强勇，沈鑫，李术才，刘健，杨春和. 盐岩储气库运营期时变可靠度计算及风险分析[J]. , 2011, 32(5): 1479-1484.

JIA Chao , LIU Jia-tao , ZHANG Qiang-yong , SHEN Xin , LI Shu-cai , LIU Jian , YANG Chun-he. Time-variant reliability calculation and risk analysis for salt rock gas storage during operation time[J]. , 2011, 32(5): 1479-1484.

参考文献

相关文章 15

[1]	陈卫忠, 李翻翻, 雷江, 于洪丹, 马永尚, . 热−水−力耦合条件下黏土岩蠕变特性研究[J]. 岩土力学, 2020, 41(2): 379-388.
[2]	张峰瑞, 姜谙男, 杨秀荣, 申发义. 冻融循环下花岗岩剪切蠕变试验与模型研究[J]. 岩土力学, 2020, 41(2): 509-519.
[3]	王立业, 周凤玺, 秦虎, . 饱和盐渍土分数阶蠕变模型及试验研究[J]. 岩土力学, 2020, 41(2): 543-551.
[4]	李翻翻, 陈卫忠, 雷江, 于洪丹, 马永尚, . 基于塑性损伤的黏土岩力学特性研究[J]. 岩土力学, 2020, 41(1): 132-140.
[5]	夏坤, 董林, 蒲小武, 李璐, . 黄土塬地震动响应特征分析[J]. 岩土力学, 2020, 41(1): 295-304.
[6]	郭院成, 李明宇, 张艳伟, . 预应力锚杆复合土钉墙支护体系增量解析方法[J]. 岩土力学, 2019, 40(S1): 253-258.
[7]	闫国强, 殷跃平, 黄波林, 张枝华, 代贞伟, . 三峡库区巫山金鸡岭滑坡成因机制与变形特征[J]. 岩土力学, 2019, 40(S1): 329-340.
[8]	刘红岩. 宏细观缺陷对岩体力学特性及边坡稳定影响研究[J]. 岩土力学, 2019, 40(S1): 431-439.
[9]	金爱兵, 刘佳伟, 赵怡晴, 王本鑫, 孙浩, 魏余栋, . 卸荷条件下花岗岩力学特性分析[J]. 岩土力学, 2019, 40(S1): 459-467.
[10]	韩征, 粟滨, 李艳鸽, 王伟, 王卫东, 黄健陵, 陈光齐, . 基于HBP本构模型的泥石流动力过程SPH数值模拟[J]. 岩土力学, 2019, 40(S1): 477-485.
[11]	吴锦亮, 何吉, . 岩质边坡动态开挖模拟的复合单元模型[J]. 岩土力学, 2019, 40(S1): 535-540.
[12]	雷江, 陈卫忠, 李翻翻, 于洪丹, 马永尚, 谢华东, 王富刚, . 引红济石引水隧洞围岩力学特性研究[J]. 岩土力学, 2019, 40(9): 3435-3446.
[13]	李晶晶, 孔令伟, . 膨胀土卸荷蠕变特性及其非线性蠕变模型[J]. 岩土力学, 2019, 40(9): 3465-3475.
[14]	陈舞, 张国华, 王浩, 陈礼彪, . 基于粗糙集条件信息熵的山岭隧道坍塌风险评价[J]. 岩土力学, 2019, 40(9): 3549-3558.
[15]	吴凤元, 樊赟赟, 陈剑平, 李军, . 基于不同侵蚀模型的高速崩滑碎屑流动力过程模拟分析[J]. 岩土力学, 2019, 40(8): 3236-3246.

Metrics

Viewed

Full text

Abstract

Cited

Shared

Discussed