多随机因素作用下储气库套管运行期安全性分析

›› 2012, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (12): 3721-3728.

多随机因素作用下储气库套管运行期安全性分析

刘健，宋娟，张凤伟，张强勇，段抗，李术才

山东大学土建与水利学院，济南 250061

收稿日期:2011-07-11 出版日期:2012-12-12 发布日期:2012-12-15
作者简介:刘健，男，1975年生，博士，副教授，主要从事岩土工程和结构工程等方面的教学与研究工作
基金资助:
国家重点基础研究发展规划(973)项目（No. 2009CB724607）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（No. 41172267，No. 41172268）；山东省自然科学基金资助项目（No. ZR2011EEM004）；山东大学自主创新基金资助项目（No. 2010TS044）

Safety analysis of casing of gas storage influenced by stochastic factors during operation period

LIU Jian, SONG Juan, ZHANG Feng-wei, ZHANG Qiang-yong, DUAN Kang, LI Shu-cai

School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250061,China

Received:2011-07-11 Online:2012-12-12 Published:2012-12-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 套管是地下储气库运行过程中的薄弱环节，各随机因素的变化会对套管系统安全性产生较大的影响。以三维套管-水泥环-围岩系统为研究对象，考虑几何尺寸、荷载、材料特性等多因素的随机特性，基于蒙特卡罗法对储气库运行期套管系统的失效概率及敏感性因素进行分析，通过与地质模型试验结果进行对比，验证了数值模拟结果的可靠性。结果表明，各随机因素对套管系统可靠性的影响程度不同，其中套管厚度、套管内径、工作内压、水泥环厚度为高敏感性因素，且各因素的影响效果不同，在工程中可采取不同措施提高系统可靠性；采气阶段，根据储气库腔体应力状态和体积变形规律确定的最大采气降压速率不会影响套管系统的安全性。

关键词: 地下储库, 套管-水泥环-围岩系统, 随机因素, 蒙特卡罗方法, 失效概率

Abstract: Casing is a weak part of underground gas storage during its operation period, which will be influenced by kinds of stochastic factors. In this paper, failure modes and failure criterions of casing and cement sheath are discussed firstly; then a three dimensional calculation model including casing, cement sheath and wall rock is established based on Jintan underground gas storage in Jiangshu province. Stochastic characters of geometrical size, load and material parameters of the casing system are analyzed, which are applied to the safety analysis. Then, failure probability and sensitive factors are calculated based on Monte Carlo method. At last, the simulation result is proved by a three dimensional geological model experiment. The research results indicate that the influences of the randomness responding to factors on casing reliability are different. Thickness of casing, inner diameter of casing, operation pressure and thickness of cement sheath are sensitive factors of casing-cement and wall rock system．Moreover, different factors have different effects on reliability. The reliability of casing decreases as storage pressure decreasing. And the reliability of cement sheath decreases as storage pressure increasing. More attention must be paid because failure probabilities of casing are high when the gas pressures of storage are extremely high or low. The gas extraction rates determined by the volume convergence law of the caverns will not influence the safety of casing-cement and wall rock system.

Key words: underground gas storage, casing-cement and wall rock system, stochastic factor, Monte Carlo method, failure probability

中图分类号:

TE 256

刘健，宋娟，张凤伟，张强勇，段抗，李术才. 多随机因素作用下储气库套管运行期安全性分析[J]. , 2012, 33(12): 3721-3728.

LIU Jian, SONG Juan, ZHANG Feng-wei, ZHANG Qiang-yong, DUAN Kang, LI Shu-cai. Safety analysis of casing of gas storage influenced by stochastic factors during operation period[J]. , 2012, 33(12): 3721-3728.

参考文献

相关文章 15

[1]	夏侯云山, 张抒, 唐辉明, 刘晓, 吴琼, . 考虑参数空间变异结构的结构化交叉约束随机场模拟方法研究[J]. 岩土力学, 2019, 40(12): 4935-4945.
[2]	蒋水华，刘贤，姚池，杨建华，黄劲松，江先河，. 低概率水平岩质边坡系统可靠度分析[J]. , 2018, 39(8): 2991-3000.
[3]	许晓亮，李建林，龚家伟，宛良朋，陈将宏，. Copula理论下基于g-line失效域的边坡可靠性分析[J]. , 2017, 38(5): 1445-1462.
[4]	郑栋，李典庆，曹子君，方国光, . 土体参数空间变异性对边坡失效模式间相关性及系统可靠度的影响[J]. , 2017, 38(2): 517-524.
[5]	蒋水华，李典庆,. 考虑参数空间变异性多层土坡系统可靠度分析[J]. , 2015, 36(S1): 629-633.
[6]	刘晓，唐辉明，熊承仁，刘清秉，. 考虑能量-时间分布的边坡动力可靠性分析新方法[J]. , 2015, 36(5): 1428-1443.
[7]	向前，何吉，陈胜宏，吴锦亮. 裂隙岩体三维柔度张量的数值试验方法[J]. , 2015, 36(12): 3625-3632.
[8]	孙长宁，曹净，宋志刚，赵惠敏，桂跃. 基坑体系可靠度的条件概率计算方法[J]. , 2014, 35(4): 1211-1216.
[9]	苏国韶，赵伟，彭立锋，燕柳斌. 边坡失效概率估计的高斯过程动态响应面法[J]. , 2014, 35(12): 3592-3601.
[10]	左自波，张璐璐，程演，王建华，何晔 . 基于MCMC法的非饱和土渗流参数随机反分析[J]. , 2013, 34(8): 2393-2400.
[11]	李萍，黄丽娟，李振江，李新生，李同录. 甘肃黄土高边坡可靠度研究[J]. , 2013, 34(3): 811-817.
[12]	贾超，李朋，张强勇，李术才. 盐岩储气库运营期失效概率分析研究[J]. , 2012, 33(11): 3352-3358.
[13]	唐小松，李典庆，周创兵，方国光. 基于Copula函数的基桩荷载-位移双曲线概率分析[J]. , 2012, 33(1): 171-178.
[14]	陈昌富，成晓炜. 双滑块边坡锚固系统时变可靠性分析[J]. , 2012, 33(1): 197-203.
[15]	文海家，张永兴，陈云. 基于三维地质信息模型的边坡风险分析[J]. , 2009, 30(S2): 367-370.

Metrics

Viewed

Full text

Abstract

Cited

Shared

Discussed