›› 2017, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (12): 3505-3516.doi: 10.16285/j.rsm.2017.12.015

• 基础理论与实验研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

路堑边坡全寿命周期风险评估及管理的技术框架

王 浩1, 2,豆红强1, 2,谢永宁1, 2,廖小平1, 2, 3   

  1. 1. 福州大学 环境与资源学院,福建 福州 350116;2. 地质工程福建省高校工程研究中心,福建 福州 350116; 3. 中铁西北科学研究院有限公司,甘肃 兰州 730000
  • 收稿日期:2016-12-10 出版日期:2017-12-11 发布日期:2018-06-05
  • 作者简介:王浩,男,1978年生,博士,副教授,主要从事高边坡与滑坡灾害防治方面的研究工作
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金(No.41002127);交通运输部建设科技项目(No.201331849A130);福建省交通运输科技发展项目(No.201242)。

A technical framework for life cycle risk assessment and management of highway cut slopes

WANG Hao1, 2, DOU Hong-qiang1, 2, XIE Yong-ning1, 2, LIAO Xiao-ping1, 2, 3   

  1. 1. College of Environment and Resources, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, Fujian 350116, China; 2. Fujian Provincial University Engineering Research Center of Geological Engineering, Fuzhou, Fujian 350116, China; 3. Northwest Research Institute Co., Ltd. of China Railway Engineering Corporation, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China
  • Received:2016-12-10 Online:2017-12-11 Published:2018-06-05
  • Supported by:

    This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41002127), the Construction Science and Technology Project from Ministry of Transport of China (201331849A130) and the Science and Technology Project from Transportation Department of Fujian Province (201242).

摘要: 路堑边坡在设计、施工和运营过程中边坡灾害、承灾对象及其成灾模式有较大的不同,将面对不同的风险事件及可能性,需要开展差异化的风险评估和全寿命周期的风险调控。提出一个基于霍尔三维结构的路堑边坡系统分析模型和路堑边坡全寿命周期风险评估及管理的技术框架,在边坡规划设计、施工建造和运营服务这3个典型的工程寿命周期内,阐明风险分析中范围界定、数据采集和信息编目的工作要点,危险性分析中破坏概率的不同定义与分析方法,危害后果分析中承灾体识别、灾害到达承灾体的概率、承灾体的时空概率和易损性等关键指标的定义与确定思路,以及各阶段风险定性与定量估算的适用方法;分别论述在上述3阶段开展边坡风险评价与效益分析、风险调控方案比选及控制规划、风险调控对策实施及监测、校核与修正的技术流程与实施要点;并讨论了风险容许标准的确定原则和提高风险评估精度及可靠性的思路。研究成果初步规范了路堑边坡全寿命周期风险评估及管理的工作流程和技术方案,希望能抛砖引玉,并在实践中逐步发展和完善。

关键词: 公路, 路堑边坡, 风险评估, 风险管理, 全寿命周期

Abstract: Diverse risk events and risk possibilities are involved in the design, construction and maintenance of highway cut slopes because slope risk and elements at risk are varying during these period. It is therefore necessary to conduct differentiated risk assessment and life cycle risk control. In this paper, a technical framework is proposed for life-cycle risk analysis, assessment and management of highway cut slopes based on a modified Hall three-dimensional morphology of systems engineering. Critical points of risk zonation, data collection and information cataloging during risk analysis in a typical design, construction and maintenance life cycle are clarified. Distinct definitions and analysis methods of failure probability in the process of hazard analysis are subsequently elucidated. Meanwhile, the definitions and measures to recognize hazard-affected targets and to evaluate their damage and space-time probability as well as vulnerability and other essential indices are determined in the process of hazard consequence analysis. The applicable methods for qualitative and quantitative risk estimation in different stages of slope engineering are also revealed. Technical procedures and key implementation points in each aspect such as slope risk assessment and benefits evaluation, comparison-and- selection and planning of solutions and countermeasures for risk regulation, monitoring, verification and modification are further discussed, respectively. Principles of determination of risk tolerance standard, ideas to enhance the accuracy and reliability of risk assessment are finally proposed. Research findings of this paper preliminarily standardized the procedures and technical program for risk assessment and management of highway cut slopes during their life cycles. It is hoped that this paper will bring forth new ideas and gradually develop and perfect the framework in practice.

Key words: highway, cut slope, risk assessment, risk management, life cycle

中图分类号: 

  • TU 443
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