极限蓄水位下洞坪水库大沟湾滑坡稳定性预测

›› 2010, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (3): 805-810.

极限蓄水位下洞坪水库大沟湾滑坡稳定性预测

江洎洧，项伟，唐辉明，曾斌，黄玲

中国地质大学工程学院（武汉），武汉 430074

收稿日期:2008-11-25 出版日期:2010-03-10 发布日期:2010-03-31
作者简介:江洎洧，男，1984年生，博士研究生，主要从事岩土体的工程性质及数值分析研究。
基金资助:
中国地质调查局“鄂西恩施地区滑坡形成机制与危险性评估”项目（No. 1212010640604）。

Stability prediction of Dagouwan landslide in Dongping reservoir at limit water level

JIANG Ji-wei，XIANG Wei，TANG Hui-ming，ZENG Bin，HUANG Ling

Faculty of Engineering ,China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China

Received:2008-11-25 Online:2010-03-10 Published:2010-03-31

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

滑坡灾害具有很强的空间变异性和随机性，应作非线性动态系统考虑。利用传递系数法，反演出极限蓄水位时大沟湾滑坡在不同安全系数下临界状态的剪切强度参数关系，对试验得到的剪切强度参数进行分析，结合工程地质类比法，由统计方法得到滑带土剪切强度参数的分布规律，并生成随机剪切参数。假设Mohr-Coulomb准则在滑坡体自重应力范围内服从线性分布，由试验参数在? -? 坐标内的分布曲线，结合天然状况下滑坡体正应力范围得到c-? 包络多边形，由此考虑剪切参数相关性，筛选出有效的随机剪切参数。通过Monte Carlo模拟，统计有效样本与反演得到的不同安全系数条件下极限平衡c-? 关系曲线的位置分布关系，得到不同安全系数滑坡的破坏概率。对极限蓄水位条件洞坪水库大沟湾滑坡稳定状况进行预测，结果表明，滑坡届时处于极高风险状态，稳定性很差。结合蓄水过程中两次对滑坡体实地考察得到的滑坡体变形特征表明，研究结果吻合。

关键词: 大沟湾滑坡, 反演分析, 传递系数法, 参数相关性, 破坏概率

Abstract:

Landslide disaster which should be considered as a nonlinear dynamic system has strong spatial variation and randomness. Using the transmission coefficient method at different safety factors, the slip soil of Dagouwan Landslide is analyzed inversely; and the relationship between shear strength parameters on conditions of critical state and limited water level is obtained. Analyzing the shear strength parameters gotten by shear tests and combining engineering geology analogy, the distribution of shear strength parameters is obtained by statistic method; then the stochastic shear strength parameter is generated. Supposing Mohr-Coulomb criterion obeys linear distribution in the range of slide mass gravity stress, with the ? -? distribution curve cluster gotten from shear test, taking the range of slide mass gravity stress into account, the c-? envelope polygon is obtained. With the envelope polygon, the effective stochastic shear parameters are selected. After Monte Carlo simulation, the failure ratio of the landslides at different safety factors are calculated based on the distribution relationship between effective stochastic shear parameters and the limit equilibrium c-? curves gotten by the inverse analysis. The prediction shows the stability of Dagouwan landslide is very weak at limit water level. Combining the twice field survey on Dagouwan landslide in the process of water impoundment, the results are identical.

Key words: Dagouwan landslide, inverse analysis, transmission coefficient method, correlation between parameters, failure probability

中图分类号:

P 642.22

江洎洧，项伟，唐辉明，曾斌，黄玲. 极限蓄水位下洞坪水库大沟湾滑坡稳定性预测[J]. , 2010, 31(3): 805-810.

JIANG Ji-wei，XIANG Wei，TANG Hui-ming，ZENG Bin，HUANG Ling. Stability prediction of Dagouwan landslide in Dongping reservoir at limit water level[J]. , 2010, 31(3): 805-810.

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