深基坑施工时地表沉降预测的时序-投影寻踪回归模型

›› 2011, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (2): 369-374.

深基坑施工时地表沉降预测的时序-投影寻踪回归模型

尹盛斌^{1, 2}，丁红岩¹

1.天津大学建筑工程学院，天津 300072；2.汤臣有限公司，上海 200122

收稿日期:2010-06-23 出版日期:2011-02-10 发布日期:2011-02-16
作者简介:尹盛斌，男，1965年生，博士研究生，主要从事岩土工程方面的科研工作。

Time series-projection pursuit regression model for predicting surface settlement during pit excavation

YIN Sheng-bin ^{1, 2}, DING Hong-yan¹

1. School of Civil Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China; 2. Tomson Group in Shanghai, Shanghai 200122, China

Received:2010-06-23 Online:2011-02-10 Published:2011-02-16

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为了保证施工的正常进行、实现信息化施工，必须对基坑实际监测数据进行分析与预测。现有的趋势时间序列分析方法很难满足实际施工中高度非线性问题的拟合，预测误差较大。基于这点考虑，以天津某工程基坑施工地表沉降观测序列为例，在对原始数据进行分析的基础上，提出既可以考虑趋势时间序列，又具有高度非线性拟合性能的时序-投影寻踪回归模型。首先，通过比较分析几种时间序列方法的逼近误差和预测误差，寻求出一种逼近较好的时间序列预测方法。然后，将预测得到的时间序列和观测数据相结合，采用投影寻踪回归方法拟合。应用结果表明，该模型逼近性能良好，预测误差小，可为深基坑位移沉降的动态预测提供一条较好的途径，对基坑动态设计与信息化施工等方面具有重要的参考价值。

关键词: 时间序列分析, 投影寻踪回归模型, 基坑施工, 地表沉降

Abstract:

To make the construction safe and implement the informative construction, it is important to analyze and predict the practical monitoring data during pit excavation. Time series analysis of existing trends is very difficult to meet the actual construction of highly nonlinear problems of fitting; and forecasting error is big. Based on this consideration, taking the practical monitoring data of the surface settlement from a pit construction in Tianjing for example, the time series-projection pursuit regression model is presented. After analyzing the raw data, the model can be considered both time series and the highly nonlinear fitting performance. First, comparative analysis of the approximation error and the forecast error of several time series methods, we find an approximation of good time series forecasting methods. The predicted and observed time series data combined with projection pursuit regression fitting. Application results show that the approximation performance of proposed model is good; and its prediction error is small. The methods presented herein are important reference to the dynamic design and informative construction for pit engineering.

Key words: time series analysis, projection pursuit regression model, pit excavation, surface settlement

中图分类号:

TU 463

尹盛斌，丁红岩. 深基坑施工时地表沉降预测的时序-投影寻踪回归模型[J]. , 2011, 32(2): 369-374.

YIN Sheng-bin, DING Hong-yan. Time series-projection pursuit regression model for predicting surface settlement during pit excavation[J]. , 2011, 32(2): 369-374.

参考文献

相关文章 15

[1]	张治国, 李胜楠, 张成平, 王志伟, . 考虑地下水位升降影响的盾构施工诱发地层变形和衬砌响应分析[J]. 岩土力学, 2019, 40(S1): 281-296.
[2]	杨公标, 张成平, 闵博, 蔡义, . 浅埋含空洞地层圆形隧道开挖引起的位移复变函数弹性解[J]. 岩土力学, 2018, 39(S2): 25-36.
[3]	胡之锋，陈健，邱岳峰，李健斌，周兴涛, . 挡墙水平变位诱发地表沉降的显式解析解[J]. , 2018, 39(11): 4165-4175.
[4]	魏纲，林雄，金睿，丁智，. 双线盾构施工时邻近地下管线安全性判别[J]. , 2018, 39(1): 181-190.
[5]	李银平，孔庆聪，施锡林，李硕，杨博进，杨春和，. 盐穴地下储库地表沉降的黏弹模型及应用[J]. , 2017, 38(7): 2049-2058.
[6]	魏纲，周杨侃. 随机介质理论预测近距离平行盾构引起的地表沉降[J]. , 2016, 37(S2): 113-119.
[7]	朱才辉，李宁. 隧道施工诱发地表沉降估算方法及其规律分析[J]. , 2016, 37(S2): 533-542.
[8]	沈路遥，钱建固，张戎泽,. 挡墙水平变位诱发地表沉降的简化解析解[J]. , 2016, 37(8): 2293-2298.
[9]	顾剑波，钱建固 , . 任意柔性挡墙变位诱发地表沉降的解析理论预测[J]. , 2015, 36(S1): 465-470.
[10]	蔡海兵，彭立敏，郑腾龙,. 隧道水平冻结壁强制解冻期地表沉降的预测方法[J]. , 2015, 36(12): 3516-3522.
[11]	张强勇，王保群，向文,. 盐岩地下储气库风险评价层次分析模型及应用[J]. , 2014, 35(8): 2299-2306.
[12]	徐长节，成守泽，蔡袁强，罗志元,. 非对称开挖条件下基坑变形性状分析[J]. , 2014, 35(7): 1929-1934.
[13]	杨泽飞，魏纲，林磊磊，张世民. 盾构法隧道施工工后横向地表总沉降研究[J]. , 2013, 34(S2): 338-343.
[14]	侯永茂，郑宜枫，杨国祥，葛修润，邱裕华 . 超大直径土压平衡盾构施工对环境影响的现场监测研究[J]. , 2013, 34(1): 235-242.
[15]	王芳，贺少辉，刘军，曹瑞琅 . 盾构隧道结合洞桩法修建地铁车站地表沉降控制标准分析[J]. , 2012, 33(S2): 289-296.

Metrics

Viewed

Full text

Abstract

Cited

Shared

Discussed