关键词: 态矢量, 滑坡预报, 归一化处理, 新滩滑坡

Abstract:

State vector is a method for describing coarse graining of continuous field in statistical physics. Introducing it into landslide forecasting, by dividing landslide hazard into n subregions, the state vector analysis is done to a series of monitoring data of subregion in every time window; through stacking modules of rainfall and monitoring data state vector after normalization, development and variations of state vectors of landslide displacements in a period are studied; and a new method is proposed to forecast landslide by using state vector. Taking Xintan Landslide for example, accumulative horizontal displacement is analyzed by state vector; it is found that the modulus and the incremental modulus of sate vector both make mutation before the landslide obviously, according to the variation of state-vector curves, based on the grading method of landslide early warning, three-grade landslide early warning is put forward; the highest warning level forecasts the landslide time is two days earlier than that of actual landslide. The result shows that the mutation of state vector is the precursory of landslide, which can be used to predict the landslide in short time and imminent sliding.

Key words: state vector, landslide forecast, normalization, Xintan Landslide