针对煤与瓦斯突出机制尚不明确的问题，在前人研究的基础上对煤与瓦斯突出强度的影响因素做进一步分析。通过三维突出模型的构建和不规则突出孔洞体积的求解，得出了突出煤体释放的弹性势能，结合突出过程中瓦斯内能和突出后能量的分析，得到煤与瓦斯突出发生的能量条件模型与突出强度预测模型。在统计10次瓦斯突出事故的基础上，运用能量条件模型与强度预测模型进行计算分析，得出突出前、后能量基本相等，突出强度预测值与统计值相差无几的结论，从而验证了该模型的合理性，为从能量角度进行煤与瓦斯突出的研究提供了量化手段。利用该能量条件模型进行了中梁山煤矿和化处煤矿突出实例的突出强度影响因素分析，结果表明，煤层的地应力和瓦斯含量是突出强度的主要影响因素，坚固性系数和进尺对突出强度的影响程度相对较小；突出强度对瓦斯含量变化的敏感度大于对地应力变化的敏感度。

The aim of this paper is to further investigate the influencing factors on outburst intensity of coal and gas due to the limited studies of its mechanisms. An expression of elastic potential energy released by coal is derived by establishing a three-dimensional outburst model and calculating the volume of irregular outburst pore. Based on analyzing gas internal energy and the energy after outburst, we propose an energy conditional model for the occurrence of coal and gas outburst and a forecast model of outburst intensity. These two models are applied to calculate the energy changes prior and after outburst, according to the statistical analysis of ten times of coal and gas outbursts. It is noted that the energies are almost the same between prior outburst and after outburst, and even the predicted values of outburst intensity are basically equal to the statistic ones. Therefore, the proposed models are verified to be valid, which provide a quantitative approach for analyzing the coal and gas outburst in terms of energy. Furthermore, the proposed procedures are successfully used to analyze the factors influencing outburst intensity of Zhongliangshan colliery and Huachu colliery. The results show that the outburst intensity is mainly dominated by the geostress of coal seam and gas content, and trivially affected by sturdiness coefficient and footage; the sensitivity of outburst intensity to gas content is higher than that of geostress.