采用Asaoka法对深圳某工程实例的地基工后沉降进行预测，发现选取不同的起始点和时间间隔时，其预测结果相差有3倍之多。因此，用数学方法对预测地基沉降的Asaoka法的表达式进行分析，探讨其拟合参数的误差对沉降预测结果的影响，提出了拟合参数误差放大系数的概念，并对预测结果的可靠性进行分析和评估。分析结果表明：影响Asaoka法沉降预测结果稳定性的一个主要原因是其预测沉降的表达式对拟合参数?1过于敏感，而且敏感性随着?1的增大而增大，因此，在保证线性拟合良好的前提下，增大离散点的时间间隔，可减小?1，从而有效减轻?1的误差对预测结果的影响；采用Asaoka法预测沉降时，不能单凭线性拟合的好坏来判断一个预测结果的可靠性，还需要考虑拟合参数的误差放大系数的大小。

In applying Asaoka’s method to predict the post-construction settlement of a road foundation in Shenzhen, it was found that the predicted results can be different by three times, depending upon the chosen initial time and time spacing. In this paper, the mathematical formulation of Asaoka’s method is analyzed and the effect of the error of fitting parameters on the predicted results is discussed, from which the concept of the error amplification coefficient of fitting parameters is defined. The reliability of predicted results by Asaoka’s method is evaluated. The results show that one of the major reasons that affect the predicted results of Asaoka’s method is that the expression of settlement prediction is very sensitive to the fitting parameter ?1, and the sensitivity increases with the increase of ?1. Hence, without scarifying the accuracy of the linear fitting method, the time spacing is increased, and ?1 can be reduced, so that the influence of the fitting parameter error on the predicted results can be effectively reduced. In predicting the foundation settlement based on Asaoka’s method, the reliability of prediction is not only dependent upon the accuracy of linear fitting , but also on the error amplification coefficient of fitting parameters.