›› 2018, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (8): 2991-3000.doi: 10.16285/j.rsm.2016.2571

• Geotechnical Engineering • Previous Articles     Next Articles

System reliability analysis of rock slopes at low probability levels

JIANG Shui-hua1, 2, LIU Xian1, YAO Chi1, YANG Jian-hua1, HUANG Jin-song1, JIANG Xian-he3   

  1. 1. School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330031, China; 2. State Key Laboratory of Geomechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, Hubei 430071, China; 3. Jiangxi Water Resources Institute, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330013, China
  • Received:2016-11-03 Online:2018-08-11 Published:2018-09-02
  • Supported by:

    This work was supported by the CRSRI Open Research Program (CKWV2018480/KY), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51509125, 51679117, U1765207), the Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Geomechanics and Geotechnical Engineering (Z016014) and the Science and Technology Project of Jiangxi Provincial Department of Water Resources (KT201534).

Abstract: To effectively tackle system reliability problems of rock slopes involving multiple correlated potential failure modes at small probability levels, this paper aims to propose a subset simulation-based approach for system reliability analysis of rock slopes. The expressions for system failure probability calculation of typical slope systems are derived. To account for the correlations among multiple failure modes, the “max” and “min” functions are utilized to construct the system performance functions. A benchmark rock slope with two sliding blocks and the left abutment slope of Jinping I slope with multiple correlated failure modes are investigated to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The results indicate that the proposed approach is much more efficient than the Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) and more accurate than the first order approximation, N-dimensional equivalent method and Ditlevsen’s bounds method when solving the system reliability problems of rock slopes with small probabilities. In summary, it provides an effective means for tackling system reliability problems of complex rock slopes at small probability levels. In addition, the correlations among different failure modes can be effectively quantified with the aid of the “max” and “min” functions, which greatly facilitates the system reliability analysis of rock slopes.

Key words: rock slopes, system reliability, multiple failure modes, small probability of failure, subset simulation

CLC Number: 

  • TU 457

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