Numerical Analysis

A Bootstrap method for analyzing slope reliability based on limited shear-strength parameter data

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  • 1. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei 430072, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Rock Mechanics in Hydraulic Structural Engineering, Ministry of Education, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei 430072, China

Received date: 2014-10-27

  Online published: 2018-06-09

Supported by

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51225903, 51329901, 51509188) and the Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province of China (2014CFA001, 2015CFB509).

Abstract

A slope reliability analysis method based on limited shear-strength parameter data is proposed by adopting the Bootstrap sampling method. The traditional method of slope reliability analysis is first introduced briefly, and then the Bootstrap method is adopted to model the statistical uncertainty in probability distributions of shear strength parameters. An example of the infinite slope is given, the influence of the distribution parameters of shear strength and the uncertainty of distribution type on the reliability of the slope is studied. The results indicate that the sample mean, sample standard deviation and AIC values derived from the limited data of shear strength parameters show a large variability. This variability further aggravates the statistical uncertainty in the probability distributions of shear strength parameters. By considering the statistical uncertainty in the probability distributions of shear strength parameters, the reliability index of a slope is presented as a confidence interval instead of a single, fixed index derived from a classical reliability analysis. The range of this confidence interval increases with increasing slope safety factor. Meanwhile, when both the uncertainties in distribution parameters and distribution types of shear strength parameters are taken into account, the reliability index has a higher variability and thus a wider range of confidence interval. The Bootstrap method provides a practical access to modeling the uncertain probability distributions of shear strength parameters and to determining the associated slope reliability with limited data of shear strength parameters.

Cite this article

TANG Xiao-song , LI Dian-qing , CAO Zi-jun , ZHOU Chuang-bing , PHOON Kok-kwang , . A Bootstrap method for analyzing slope reliability based on limited shear-strength parameter data[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2016 , 37(3) : 893 -901 . DOI: 10.16285/j.rsm.2016.03.035

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