关键词: 矿井突水, 矿井水文地质, 突水水源判别, 多组逐步Bayes判别

Abstract:

Mine water inrush is one of the most threatening disasters in mining engineering, especially in underground coal mines. How to distinguish the source of mine water inrush exactly and quickly is not only the major content of mine hydrogeology works, but also the important foundation of mine water prevention. In the source determination of mine water inrush, it is essential to consider the importance of the indexes of chemical elements of water. Based on the Bayes’ multi-group stepwise discriminant analysis theory, six indexes of chemical elements, such as Na+ + K+, Ca2+, Mg2+, Cl-, SO42- and HCO3-, are taken as the key factors. The total of 35 different water sources examples from a real mining area are chosen as the training and testing samples, a forecast model for distinguishing the source of mine water inrush is then established. The results obtained by the forecast model in case studies are well consistent with the practical situations, so as to prove the utility and efficient of the method. It may provide a new method for the water source determination of mine water inrush.

Key words: mine water inrush, mine hydrogeology, source determination of mine water inrush, the Bayes&rsquo, multi-group stepwise discriminant method