Abstract: During the practical construction, deformation development of foundation pit is related to many factors. It is hard to make quantitative analysis with mechanical model. So we can make model based on measured value to predict the deformation trend in a short future time. This model can be used to evaluate and adjust the current construction scheme. Firstly, the characteristics of measured deformation are given. Then the vector auto regression (VAR) model of foundation pit deformation prediction is made by economy prediction VAR model. Lastly, the VAR model precision and prediction ratio are given with measured data. From the prediction analysis, the model precision sorting is VAR model, metabolism model, neural network model and GM(1,1) model. And the prediction ratio sorting is VAR model, metabolism model, neural network model and GM(1, 1) model.

Key words: deep foundation pit, deformation prediction, VAR model, precision, prediction ratio