›› 2009, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (7): 2186-2190.

• Numerical Analysis • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Study of premonitory time series prediction of coal and gas outbursts based on chaos theory

ZHAO Zhi-gang1, 2, TAN Yun-liang1   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Mine Disaster Prevention and Control, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266510, China; 2. Chongqing Branch, China Coal Research Institute, Chongqing 400037, China
  • Received:2007-11-15 Online:2009-07-10 Published:2011-03-10

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Abstract:

The prediction study of coal and gas outbursts is carried out by monitoring some indices which are sensitive to the initiation of coal and gas outbursts. The values and changing rules of the indices monitoring data are the foundations of coal and gas outbursts prediction. The principle of chaos prediction is firstly introduced; and then two group data of gas density are calculated using global model, zero order model and one order model. The calculation results indicate that the accuracy of weighted one order model is higher; and the selecting of prediction method is associated with chaos property of monitored data series.

Key words: chaos theory, coal and gas outbursts, premonitory time series prediction

CLC Number: 

  • G 807.0
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