基于实际工程水库岸坡失稳资料和现有岸坡失稳模型，指出现有模型的局限性，提出了新的水库岸坡承压水模型。给出了承压水模型适用条件，推导了滑带底部承压水压力的理论计算公式。得到了考虑承压水时的岸坡安全系数计算公式，验证了承压水存在的合理性。研究结果表明，在考虑承压水情况下，岸坡稳定性受降雨入渗量和库水位变化的影响显著，且两个影响因素联合作用的效果比单个因素作用再叠加更明显。承压水岸坡渗透比在（10-5~10-2）区间时，岸坡稳定性最低，安全系数存在一个最小值，最易发生失稳。渗透比相同时，降雨入渗量越大，岸坡稳定性越低。

On the basis of analyzing the actual engineering data and the limitation of existing instability models, a new conceptual artesian water model of reservoir bank slope is proposed. The conditions pertinent to artesian water model are given. Theoretical calculation formulae for artesian water pressure at the bottom of the sliding zone and for factor of safety of reservoir bank slope are deduced respectively considering the artesian water. It is verified that the existence of artesian water is reasonable. The influence of rainfall infiltration and water level fluctuation on the stability of bank slope is significant by considering the artesian water. The combined effect of these two factors is greater than the simple superimposed effect of single factor respective action. The stability of artesian water slope is the lowest when the infiltration ratio belongs to the range of (10-5, 10-2). The slope is prone to slide when the factor of safety reaches the minimum value. With the same infiltration ratio, the larger the rainfall infiltration is, the lower the landslide stability is.