三峡库区阶跃变形滑坡水平位移与降雨量
数学统计模型

doi:10.16285/j.rsm.2019.0751

岩土力学 ›› 2020, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (S1): 305-311.doi: 10.16285/j.rsm.2019.0751

三峡库区阶跃变形滑坡水平位移与降雨量数学统计模型

赵久彬^{1, 2}，刘元雪^{1, 2}，何少其^{1, 2}，杨骏堂^{1, 2}，柏准^{1, 2}

1. 陆军勤务学院军事设施系，重庆 401311；2. 陆军勤务学院岩土力学与地质环境保护重庆市重点实验室，重庆 401311

收稿日期:2019-04-25 修回日期:2019-08-24 出版日期:2020-06-19 发布日期:2020-06-09
通讯作者: 刘元雪，男，1969年生，博士后，教授，博士生导师，主要从事岩土体本构关系与地下工程稳定性的教学与科研工作。E-mail: lyuanxue@vip.sina.com E-mail:459694118@qq.com
作者简介:赵久彬，男，1987年生，博士研究生，主要从事滑坡监测预警大数据系统研。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（No.41877219）；重庆市自然科学基金项目（No.cstc2019jcyj-msxmX0585）；重庆市规划和自然资源局科技计划项目（No.KJ-2018016）。

Mathematical statistical model of horizontal displacement and rainfall of step deformation landslide in Three Gorges reservoir area

ZHAO Jiu-bin^{1, 2}, LIU Yuan-xue^{1, 2}, HE Shao-qi^{1, 2}, YANG Jun-tang^{1, 2}, BAI Zhun^{1, 2}

1. Department of Architectural Engineering, Army Logistics University of PLA, Chongqing 401311, China; 2. Chongqing Key Laboratory of Geomechanics and Geoenvironment Protection, Army Logistics University of PLA, Chongqing 401311, China

Received:2019-04-25 Revised:2019-08-24 Online:2020-06-19 Published:2020-06-09
Supported by:
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41877219), Natural Science Foundation of Chongqing (cstc2019jcyj-msxmX0585), and Science and Technology Project of Planning and Natural Resources Bureau of Chongqing Government(KJ-2018016).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 三峡库区忠县区域的滑坡位移变化呈现阶跃变形特点，由于降雨量为主要影响因子，采用信号处理的快速傅里叶变换方法，提出一种基于高能频点的傅里叶级数拟合函数，对三峡库区忠县区域的月降雨量进行拟合，得到相关性高和均方误差可接受的拟合模型。在地质模型及滑坡机理类似的研究区内，针对滑坡倾角对水平位移的影响较大，通过定义滑坡倾角影响权重，计算研究区内的总体权重位移能较好地反映倾角作用大小。设定降雨量傅里叶级数拟合函数为降雨因子项，阶跃函数为阶跃因子项，采用最小二乘法拟合该研究区3阶段变形的阶跃过程，得出包含降雨影响控制项和降雨量项组合而成的数学统计模型，用于三峡库区忠县区域9个阶跃变形滑坡11年的月监测。数据表明，用文中方法得到的拟合精度较好，相关度较高，均方误差较小，能够准确地反映出不同时间和不同变形阶段降雨量对该区域内水平位移的阶跃变形特点，可作为区域滑坡空间预测的一种新思路。

关键词: 快速傅里叶变换, 高能频点, 阶跃变形, 降雨量与水平位移, 数学统计模型

Abstract: The change of landslide displacement in Zhongxian area of the Three Gorges reservoir area shows step deformation characteristics. Because rainfall as the main influencing factor, the high energy frequency point of amplitude is obtained by fast Fourier transform, and a Fourier series fitting function based on high energy frequency is proposed by using the fast Fourier transform method of signal processing. The monthly rainfall in the Zhongxian region of the Three Gorges Reservoir area is fitted, and the fitting model of high correlation and acceptable mean square error is obtained. In the research area with similar geological model and landslide mechanism, the influence of landslide inclination on horizontal displacement is greater. By defining the influence weight of landslide inclination angle, the total weight displacement in the study area is calculated, which can better reflect the effect of the dip angle. By setting the rainfall Fourier series fitting function as the rainfall factor term, and the step function as the step factor term, the least square method is used to fit the step process of the three-stage deformation in the study area, a mathematical statistical model consisting of a combination of rainfall impact control and rainfall items is obtained. The method is applied to the 11-month monthly monitoring data of 9 step deformation landslides in the Zhongxian area of the Three Gorges reservoir area, which shows that the fitting accuracy obtained by the method is better, the correlation is higher, the mean square error is smaller, and it can accurately reflect the step deformation characteristics of horizontal displacement in this region at different time and different deformation stages. This method can be used as a new idea for regional landslide spatial prediction.

Key words: fast fourier transform, high energy frequency point, step deformation, rainfall and horizontal displacement, mathematical statistical model

中图分类号:

P642.22

赵久彬, 刘元雪, 何少其, 杨骏堂, 柏准, . 三峡库区阶跃变形滑坡水平位移与降雨量数学统计模型[J]. 岩土力学, 2020, 41(S1): 305-311.

ZHAO Jiu-bin, LIU Yuan-xue, HE Shao-qi, YANG Jun-tang, BAI Zhun, . Mathematical statistical model of horizontal displacement and rainfall of step deformation landslide in Three Gorges reservoir area[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2020, 41(S1): 305-311.

参考文献

Metrics

Viewed

Full text

Abstract

Cited

Shared

Discussed

[1]	何满潮，赵菲，张昱，杜帅，管磊 , . 瞬时应变型岩爆模拟试验中花岗岩主频特征演化规律分析[J]. , 2015, 36(1): 1-8.
[2]	黄诚，杨春和，王安明. 利用全概率方法分析岩土力学数值模拟结果的变异性[J]. , 2008, 29(11): 2919-2926.

三峡库区阶跃变形滑坡水平位移与降雨量数学统计模型

Mathematical statistical model of horizontal displacement and rainfall of step deformation landslide in Three Gorges reservoir area

PDF (Chinese)

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 2

Metrics

本文评价

推荐阅读 0

三峡库区阶跃变形滑坡水平位移与降雨量 数学统计模型

Mathematical statistical model of horizontal displacement and rainfall of step deformation landslide in Three Gorges reservoir area

PDF (Chinese)

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 2

Metrics

本文评价

推荐阅读 0

三峡库区阶跃变形滑坡水平位移与降雨量数学统计模型