盐岩地下油气储库运营期风险的故障树分析

›› 2011, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (4): 1125-1130.

盐岩地下油气储库运营期风险的故障树分析

李媛¹，张强勇¹，贾超²，刘健²，李术才¹，杨春和³

1.山东大学岩土与结构工程研究中心，济南 250061；2.山东大学土建与水利学院，济南 250061； 3.中国科学院武汉岩土力学研究所，武汉 430071

收稿日期:2010-04-27 出版日期:2011-04-10 发布日期:2011-04-29
作者简介:李媛，女，1984年生，硕士，主要从事盐岩地下油气储库灾变风险分析与评估研究
基金资助:
国家重点基础研究发展规划（973）（No. 2009CB724607）；国家自然科学基金项目资助（No. 40772173）；山东省自然科学基金项目资助（No. Y2007F52）；教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目资助（No. NCET-08-0336）。

Fault tree analysis of salt cavern storage during its operational period

LI Yuan¹，ZHANG Qiang-yong¹，JIA Chao²，LIU Jian2，LI Shu-cai¹，YANG Chun-he³

1. Research Center of Geotechnical and Structural Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250061, China; 2. School of Civil Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250061, China; 3. Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430071, China

Received:2010-04-27 Online:2011-04-10 Published:2011-04-29

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

盐岩以其良好的蠕变特性、低渗透性和损伤自我恢复性而被广泛用于地下油气能源储备，虽然目前国内外对盐岩力学特性的研究成果较多，但关于盐岩地下油气储库风险分析的研究报道却尚不多见。为了探讨盐岩地下油气储库运营期的风险机制，以江苏金坛盐岩地下油气储库为示范工程，对储库运营期的风险因子进行了辨识。应用故障树分析方法对储库运营期事故进行研究，建立了储库运营期腔体失效、地表沉陷、油气渗漏的故障树模型。通过对运营期故障树最小割集和结构重要度的分析，将储库运营期的风险因子按其影响程度进行了排序，并对故障树分析方法进行了评价，所得结论为进一步开展储库风险评估与控制提供了指导意见。

关键词: 盐岩地下油气储库, 风险因子, 故障树模型, 最小割集, 结构重要度

Abstract:

Based on the good characters of creep property, low permeability and self-healing of damage, salt rock has been widely used in energy storage of oil and gas. Nowadays, most researches are concerned on the mechanical properties of salt rock at home and abroad; but the studies about risk analysis of the salt cavern storage are still few. So in order to explore the risk mechanism of salt cavern during the operational period, with the demonstration project of the Jintan oil-gas storage of salt rock in Jiangsu Province, the risk factors during the operational period are identified. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is applied to establishing the analytical models for cavern failure, surface subsidence and storage leakage. Then the minimal cut sets and structure importance are used to sort the risk factors for their influence level. At last, FTA is evaluated to provide guidance for further risk assessment and control during the operational period.

Key words: salt cavern storage of oil and gas, risk factors, fault tree models, minimal cut sets, structure importance

中图分类号:

TU 473

李媛，张强勇，贾超，刘健，李术才，杨春和. 盐岩地下油气储库运营期风险的故障树分析[J]. , 2011, 32(4): 1125-1130.

LI Yuan，ZHANG Qiang-yong，JIA Chao，LIU Jian，LI Shu-cai，YANG Chun-he. Fault tree analysis of salt cavern storage during its operational period[J]. , 2011, 32(4): 1125-1130.

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