Abstract: Aimed at regulated scheme of Three Gorges Reservoir and extreme rainfall events, 10 working conditions were set for stability analysis of bazimen landslide of Zigui county. Transit seepage due to associative action of reservoir water lever fluctuations from 175 to 145 and rainfall infiltration was simulated adopted by SEEP/W software. And by using SLOPE/W software, the computed transit pore water pressures were used for limit equilibrium analysis of this landslide, then the landslide stability factors of different work conditions (different rainfall intensity) were decided and the rainfall could be used to predict landslide at last. The stability study showed it would have a great influence on landslide stability when the rainfall is greater than 150 mm/d, and rainfall infiltration had time delay. In the same condition of rainfall, the influence of one day’s rainfall intensity on landslide stability had greater than five day’s rainfall intensity. During the process of water lever descending from 175 m to 145 m, the landslide would be instability when the critical rainfall was 100 mm/d. That is to say, the landslide failure probability was high during the rapid drawdown. During the process of water lever ascending from 145 m to 175 m and the stable water lever of 175 mm, the landslide would be instability while the critical rainfall was reach to 200 mm/d, that means the landslide failure probability was low under the above two conditions. The results of moisture analysis on landslide showed that it mainly influenced upper soil by rainfall, and lower soil’s moisture was controlled by underground water, which indicated rainfall was accessible to cause shallow slope and local slope

Key words: Bazimen landslide;critical rainfall, water lever fluctuations, stability prediction