Abstract: Studying the dynamic process of the occurrence and development of ground surface subsidence disaster due to underground mining has important theoretical significance and engineering application value. Because of the complexity of the overlying strata and coal mining process, it is difficult to comprehensive study the strata movement and surface subsidence in the mining process. So，research the subsidence of surface observation spot is a starting point to study the dynamic surface subsidence in the coal mining process. It is discovered that the Weibull function can more accurately to fit and describe the subsidence curves of the observing spots in mining subsidence area through the study of subsidence time series of surface subsidence observing Points. It is discovered that the sinking processes of the subsidence observing Points in same subsidence area are independent in space and time through the study of the simulation of mining by the numerical analysis software FLAC3D. On this basic, the phenomenological model of the subsidence, curvature and slope curve of the section on subsidence area is established through combining the probability integral settlement curve model and the Weibull time sequence function of the surface subsidence of the observing points. Some mining area observation data proved this modeling and model is feasible.

Key words: surface subsidence, dynamic process, Weibull time function, curve model