›› 2014, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (4): 1211-1216.

• Numerical Analysis • Previous Articles    

Calculation method of foundation pit system reliability based on conditional probability

SUN Chang-ning，CAO Jing，SONG Zhi-gang，ZHAO Hui-min，GUI Yue   

  1. Faculty of Civil Engineering and Mechanics, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650500, China
  • Received:2013-07-08 Online:2014-04-10 Published:2014-04-18

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Abstract: There are many failure modes in the foundation pit engineering. Considering the correlation between failure modes, the range of system failure probability is large using the Breadth Border method or the narrow bounds method. The response surface is established by using the uniform test and nonparametric regression method. On this basis, in order to obtain the index of each failure mode, the random parameters generated by the Monte Carlo simulation are interpolated. Combined with the Pearson correlation coefficient, the correlation is tested between failure modes. Considering the correlation of multiple failure modes, the system reliability analysis method of foundation pit engineering based on conditional probability is put forward. As a typical example, a system failure probability of foundation pit is analyzed by using the conditional probability method. A case study shows that the method is simple and reliable in calculation, so as to provide a new way for the system reliability theory of foundation pit.

Key words: foundation pit system, failure probability, response surface, conditional probability, Monte Carlo simulation, reliability

CLC Number: 

  • TU 470
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