Abstract:

The advantages and disadvantages of some commonly used settlement prediction models are analyzed. comparatively An optimal method of settlement prediction by fitting precision and prediction accuracy is proposed. A better loess subgrade settlement prediction method is put forward based on the measured data of Zhengzhou-Xi’an passenger dedicated line.The fitting precision and the prediction accuracy of combination forecasting model are studied. It is concluded that the fitting precision and the prediction accuracy of combination forecasting model should be higher then any other prediction methods because of its comprehensive nature. But the members of combination forecasting model must be selected before prediction. Prediction accuracy and screening criteria are closely linked. How to choose better screening criteria which make square sum of error small in the prerequisite conditions of weight coefficient being greater than zero still need further study.

Key words: prediction, combination forecasting model, loess subgrade