关键词: Monte-Carlo, 可靠性指标, 失效概率

Abstract: Utilizing four kinds of limit equilibrium methods such as Morgenstern-Price, Ordinary, Bishop and Janbu, stability of the landslide No. 8 in Zhuxi sector of Taizhou North-to-South Water Transfer Project is studied on basis of reliability theory. Determined analysis schemes of most harmful, most favorable and mean constitutions are designed to set reference points for probabilistic method. The influence of cyclic number on Mento-Carlo method is discussed under condition of cyclic numbers of 5 000, 50 000, 500 000, 5 000 000. Then, the effect of probability distribution function such as normal, triangular and uniform is analyzed and tested. Furthermore, the effect of variance is reviewed on condition that standard deviation respectively equals 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0 and 5.0 times of experimental value. Finally, sensitivity analysis and correlative coefficient between strength parameters from -1.0 to 1.0 change at intervals of 0.25 is considered. It is found that cyclic number only imposes great effect on extreme values of Fs, that different probabilistic distribution function and variance can do great harm to reliability indexes, and that correlative coefficient only exerts effect on failure probability.

Key words: Monte-Carlo, reliability index, failure probability, factor of safety