基于AHP和模糊综合评判的TBM施工风险评估

›› 2009, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (3): 793-798.

基于AHP和模糊综合评判的TBM施工风险评估

赵延喜^{1, 2}，徐卫亚^{1, 2}

1.河海大学岩土力学与堤坝工程教育部重点实验室，南京 210098；2.河海大学岩土工程科学研究所，南京 210098

收稿日期:2007-06-15 出版日期:2009-03-10 发布日期:2011-01-28
作者简介:赵延喜，男，1980年生，博士研究生，主要从事岩土工程、隧道及地下工程风险方面的研究。
基金资助:
国家科技支撑计划项目资助（No. 2006BAB04A06）。

Risk assessment of TBM construction for tunnels based on AHP and fuzzy synthetic evaluation

ZHAO Yan-xi ^{1, 2}, XU Wei-ya ^{1, 2}

1.Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education for Geomechanics and Embankment Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; 2.Geotechnical Research Institute, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

Received:2007-06-15 Online:2009-03-10 Published:2011-01-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

岩石隧洞建设中面临很大和众多的风险，利用TBM施工的深埋长隧洞受多种不确定因素影响，具有随机性和模糊性，目前的研究方法难以对其进行准确定量分析。通过深入分析影响TBM施工的风险因素，建立了TBM施工风险综合评价指标体系。基于风险影响因素的层次性，提出了TBM施工风险二级模糊综合评判计算模型，并利用层次分析法(AHP)确定各级因素权重，利用模糊集法确定隶属函数，划分了风险接受等级。以南水北调西线工程深埋长隧洞TBM施工为例，应用二级模糊综合评判计算模型对该工程TBM施工风险进行分析，计算结果表明，该方法是合理性实用的。其理论、方法、思路和结论可供同类工程借鉴。

关键词: 岩石隧洞, TBM施工, 模糊综合评判, 层次分析法, 风险评估

Abstract:

Great and numerous risks will be encountered in the construction of rock tunnel; the tunnel boring machine(TBM) construction for deep-buried long tunnel is affected by various uncertain factors with random and fuzzy behaviors, which can’t be quantitatively analyzed by current methods. A synthetic evaluation index system for TBM construction risk is established by analyzing the factors that influence TBM construction. Based on the hierarchy of these factors, a model of two-stage fuzzy synthetic evaluation is proposed; and analytic hierarchy process(AHP) is used to determine the weight of each stage factor; fuzzy sets method is used to determine membership function; risk ranking is also classified. The proposed method is applied to the TBM construction risk in South-North Water Transfer Project; the simulation results show that the method is reasonable. The analytical approach and the results will be practical and helpful to other similar projects.

Key words: rock tunnel, TBM construction, fuzzy synthetic evaluation, analytic hierarchy process, risk evaluation

中图分类号:

TV 554

赵延喜，徐卫亚. 基于AHP和模糊综合评判的TBM施工风险评估[J]. , 2009, 30(3): 793-798.

ZHAO Yan-xi, XU Wei-ya. Risk assessment of TBM construction for tunnels based on AHP and fuzzy synthetic evaluation[J]. , 2009, 30(3): 793-798.

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