Abstract: There is an obvious trend of climate warming and wetting on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during the past fifty years. Climate changes in air temperature or precipitation will inevitably influence the stability of permafrost. Previous studies mainly focus on the thermal influence of climate warming, but little is known about the induced rainfall infiltration and the hydrothermal response mechanism. Based on the meteorological data observed at Beiluhe observation station during 2013, the established water-vapor-heat transport model is used to predict the response under 1℃ and 2 ℃ increment of temperature, which considering the influences of rainfall. Climate change influences the thermal-moisture of permafrost mainly by changing the surface energy budget and soil hydrothermal transport components. The results show that climate warming greatly increased the surface net radiation, latent heat of evaporation and soil heat flux, decreased the sensible heat and rainfall infiltration. The rising air temperature reduces the soil moisture and soil hydraulic conductivity. Temperature gradient increases dramatically with temperature arising, further increases the moisture and energy components and reduces the components related to the water potential gradient. Climate warming increases the surface evaporation and thickness of active layer and accelerates the degradation of permafrost, which is contrary to the thermal effects of rainfall increasing.

Key words: permafrost, active layer, water transport, heat transfer, climate change, rainfall