关键词: 最小熵原理, 未确知测度, 泥石流, 敏感性分析, 贡献率, 权重

Abstract: For the purpose of legitimately determining each major factor weight and objectively analyzing debris flow susceptibility, a model for analyzing debris flow susceptibility is established based on minimum entropy analysis and uncertainty measurement theory. Nine major factors of 26 typical debris flows along Jinsha River are selected. By utilizing the minimum entropy analysis, the contribution rate to debris flow system and weight of each major factor are obtained. And then, the multi-index comprehensive evaluation measure vector of each debris flow catchment is determined based on the uncertainty measurement theory. The final susceptibility degree is acquired by credible degree recognition criteria. By comparing the debris-flow susceptibility results with reference[11], we find that only seven debris flow catchments are different. Comparing the susceptibility results with field observations, 22 of 26 debris flow catchments agrees very well with real status of debris flow; and the susceptibilities of four debris flow catchments are conservative. Thus, the proposed model is shown to be quite effective in predicting debris flow susceptibility, which can be applied to actual engineering; and the analyzing results can provide rational suggestion for debris flow prevention.

Key words: minimum entropy theory, uncertainty measurement, debris flow, susceptibility analysis, contribution rate, weight