关键词: 边坡, 滑坡, 可靠性, 评价方法, 动力, 模式分类, 发展趋势

Abstract: The evolution of slope reliability research from statics to even more universal dynamics is an inevitable result of its development. At present, the research on dynamic reliability of slope is in its infancy, and the available evaluation theory and methods are evolved from the static reliability theoretical system of slope. Based on the analysis of the theoretical framework of a reliability problem, the methods of static reliability analysis are divided into six nested modes, four of which are compatible with the dynamic reliability problems. This paper clarifies the significance of the high-performance computing in reliability analysis. A quantitative study of the efficiency of the algorithm is achieved based on the theory of computational complexity. The time complexities of these six modes are proposed under static and dynamic conditions. Based on the statistical analysis of 46 SCI-E citations within 2000-2012, the problems of present slope dynamic reliability research are summarized into three aspects: ① The consideration of uncertainty is inadequate. ② The controversy regarding slope system reliability methods has a significant effect on the dynamic field. ③ Computational efficiency has become one of the technical bottlenecks of restricting the further study of dynamic reliability. Correspondingly, the future development trend can be summarized as follows: ① Consideration of uncertainty will trend to more comprehensive and in-depth methodology. The use of random field theory to characterize the spatial variability of mechanical properties of the rock and soil will gradually be given more serious attention. In addition, the fuzziness and randomness will receive in-depth integration. ② Addressing the controversy issue of slope system reliability methods, a strong proof of theory is desired. In future practice, more precise and more complicated approaches as well as the emerging swarm intelligence optimization algorithms will be widely used. ③ For the issue of computational efficiency for dynamic reliability analysis, the embedded mode that combines response surface method and Monte Carlo simulation method has an excellent prospect of developing. By using the appropriate and excellent algorithms from nonlinear disciplines as a high-efficiency surrogate for the response surface, the development of the slope dynamic reliability research will be greatly promoted.

Key words: slope, landslide, reliability, evaluation method, dynamic, pattern classification, development trends