关键词: 组合预测, 模型, 变形, 位移, 危岩体

Abstract: The application of combinatorial forecasting method to determining displacement due to slope deformation is described. It suitably combines with models of forecast, synthetically uses the very useful information in all models of forecast. At first, five models of forecast: moving average model; exponential smoothing model; exponential trend model and regression analysis model are established and then respectively forecasts to the displacement value in deformation of hazardous rock masses. Finally, the results of forecast from every model are averaged in equal weight and they are synthetically forecast again. An actual example, the forecast of displacement values at observation point of Lianziya hazardous rock masses is applied. The forecast results show that their absolute errors are less and the precision is higher. It greatly improves the steadiness and the precision of forecast.

Key words: combinatorial forecast, model, displacement, deformation, hazardous rock mass