关键词: 液化, 侧向变形, 超越概率, 不确定性, 风险

Abstract: This paper proposes a fundamental framework for assessing the exceedance probability of liquefaction-induced lateral displacement within an exposure time period considering seismic randomness and uncertainty of soil properties by combining an empirical regression model of lateral spread and the joint probability model of seismicity. The effectiveness of the proposed model is demonstrated through a case study. The prediction provided by the proposed model is compared with the results generated by several available empirical regression models. Results show that the standard deviation has insignificant effect on the results if the conditional probability of lateral spread is normal distributed and the standard deviation ranges from 5% to 20% of the mean value, while it affects results to a certain extent if the conditional probability is lognormally distributed. The empirical regression models can only predict the magnitude of lateral spread for a given seismic level; while the proposed model is able to simultaneously predict the value and the likelihood of lateral spread due to considering uncertainty of all possible seismic levels in a certain exposure time period. Thus the proposed model is more appropriate for the aim of regional assessment of liquefaction hazard.

Key words: liquefaction, lateral displacement, exceedance probability, uncertainty, risk