关键词: 运动角差, 相似性度量, 滑坡, 预测

Abstract: The response of a monitoring point on a landslide to external factors over a period of time can be regarded as a current state of the landslide. The monitoring points on landslide show similar responses when they are stimulated by similar external factors under similar states. Accordingly, it is possible to analogize similar states and apply it to stability analysis, data correction and prediction of landslide. In this study, a similarity measurement method for multiple information data based on status element matrix was proposed. It not only ensured the similarity of the external factors, but also guaranteed the similarity of the current state of landslide to measure external factors and movement status of landslides. To verify the effectiveness of the method, 1 770 states of 34 monitoring points of 4 landslides in the Three Gorges reservoir area were used as status element matrix to perform similarity matching, and good results were obtained to predict displacement data of Baishui River landslide from January 2015 to June 2016. Based on the results, the similarity measurement method proposed was superior to the existing classic prediction methods such as back propagation neural network, support vector regression and so on.

Key words: motion angle difference, similarity measurement, landslides, prediction